Overall Race Picture
- Podium battle: Verstappen, Norris, Piastri, Leclerc, Sainz
- Top 10 midfield fight: Russell, Alonso, Hamilton, Stroll, Ocon
- Backfield cluster: Bottas, Ricciardo, Bearman, Zhou, Albon, Doohan, Sargeant, Magnussen
* Note some racers may not be competing and are actually reserve drivers which are included in this report. Double check all numbers and drivers. Proceed with caution.
Top podium contenders:
Max Verstappen – Highest probability for P2 (12.52%) with strong chances for P1 and P5, suggesting a top 3 finish is likely.
Lando Norris – P1 (11.35%) is strong, with P5 (11.85%) close behind, indicating either a win or top 5 finish.
Charles Leclerc – High probability for P4 (9.02%) and decent P1 chances (5.25%), suggesting a top 5 finish.
Oscar Piastri – Likely to place P2 (8.97%) or P5 (8.49%), also with a solid chance for P3.
Carlos Sainz – P3 (8.37%) and P4 (6.16%) indicate mid-top 5 placement.
Other potential top 5 finishers:
George Russell – P4 (8.38%) and P5 (5.49%), likely within top 5.
Fernando Alonso – Highest for P6 (5.58%) but also notable P3 and P10 probabilities, suggesting top 10 with an outside shot at top 5.
Lewis Hamilton – Spread across P2-P8 with strongest at P8 (6.24%), possibly ending just outside top 5.
Mid-field battlers:
Lance Stroll – Highest at P7 (6.90%), mid-field expected.
Esteban Ocon – P13 (6.55%) and P10 (4.49%), mid-field to lower top 10.
Nico Hülkenberg – P10 (5.63%), likely between P9-P13.
Likely backfield:
Valtteri Bottas – High probability in P12-P16 range, unlikely top 10.
Daniel Ricciardo – P12 (9.01%), P13 (8.10%), back half of field.
Oliver Bearman, Guanyu Zhou, Alex Albon, Jack Doohan, Logan Sargeant, Kevin Magnussen – Most probabilities indicate P14 and below, backfield expected.
| Driver | Highest Podium Probability | Most Likely Position (Top 5) | Notable Other Probabilities |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | P1: 11.35% | P5: 11.85% | P3: 4.52%, P4: 4.69% |
| Lance Stroll | P7: 6.90% | P9: 5.20% | P11: 4.78%, scattered mid-field probabilities |
| Oscar Piastri | P2: 8.97% | P5: 8.49% | P3: 7.71% |
| Max Verstappen | P2: 12.52% | P5: 7.44% | P1: 4.64%, P4: 4.26% |
| George Russell | P4: 8.38% | P5: 5.49% | Consistent mid-field probabilities |
| Fernando Alonso | P6: 5.58% | P3: 5.34% | P10: 4.99%, spread across top 10 |
| Lewis Hamilton | P7: 4.93% | P8: 6.24% | P3: 4.81%, P2: 4.70% |
| Charles Leclerc | P4: 9.02% | P1: 5.25% | P6: 5.13% |
| Carlos Sainz | P3: 8.37% | P4: 6.16% | P1: 4.00% |
| Esteban Ocon | P13: 6.55% | P10: 4.49% | mid-pack spread |
| Nico Hülkenberg | P10: 5.63% | P9: 5.23% | P13: 5.14%, broad mid-field probabilities |
| Valtteri Bottas | P12: 11.64% | P14: 7.28% | P16: 7.17%, heavy lower mid-field likelihood |
| Daniel Ricciardo | P12: 9.01% | P13: 8.10% | P16: 6.04% |
| Oliver Bearman | P7: 7.89% | P11: 7.89% | Less competitive P1 chances |
| Guanyu Zhou | P19: 6.82% | P18: 6.33% | P15: 6.27%, consistently backfield |
| Alex Albon | P14: 7.12% | P10: 6.52% | P18: 6.02% |
| Jack Doohan | P17: 5.26% | Sparse data elsewhere | |
| Franco Colapinto | No notable probabilities recorded | ||
| Isack Hadjar | No notable probabilities recorded | ||
| Yuki Tsunoda | P8: 8.09% | P20: 5.95% | Significant mid-back field spread |
| Sergio Pérez | P3: 7.92% | P4: 4.85% | P5: 3.52%, P12: 4.75% |
| Pierre Gasly | P11: 7.65% | P17: 6.30% | P19: 4.34% |
| Logan Sargeant | P20: 4.98% | P17: 4.84% | Mostly lower field positions |
| Kevin Magnussen | P17: 8.45% | P12: 7.07% | P20: 4.70% |
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